Chicago at Minnesota

Luis Castillo's ERA sits at 5.19 and did him no favors again last time out, but the White Sox have been winning with everything except a lights-out rotation lately, taking two of their last three from Texas by scoring in bunches even when the start wasn't clean. Minnesota counters with Dean Kremer, who has been the far bigger problem all year, a 5.22 ERA that puts him among the shakier starters in the league this season. The board still has Minnesota as the favorite here, which is the part of this line that doesn't add up: Chicago is the team with the better overall record, has scored well enough recently to survive a rough start, and gets a run and a half of cushion attached to plus money on top of it. That's the exact profile my run-line system is built to find: a team the market keeps underpricing even as the standings say otherwise. Minnesota winning outright is entirely possible if either bullpen cracks early, but this number is priced for a bigger gap between these two teams than actually exists. Chicago wins on the runline tonight.