Chicago at Cleveland

Gavin Williams is the best arm on this mound tonight, a 3.81 ERA with 117 strikeouts that ranks him among the American League's better starters, and Anthony Kay's 4.50 ERA doesn't compete with that on paper, and normally that's where I'd stop. But this White Sox lineup isn't built to be intimidated by a good arm. Chicago carries a plus-25 run differential and ranks seventh in the league in park-adjusted offense, averaging close to five runs a night even in a season with its share of rough patches. Cleveland's problem runs the other direction: the Guardians rank near the bottom of baseball in both batting average and runs scored, and a strong pitching staff can only cover for that so many nights in a row. At plus money, Chicago doesn't need to out-pitch Williams. It needs one big inning against a Guardians offense that gives its own staff almost no margin for error. Side with the White Sox tonight.