Chicago at Boston

Boston has dominated this season series, 5-0 with a 33-4 run differential, and the Red Sox arrive red-hot, 25 wins in their last 28 games. That head-to-head history is real, and it matters, but tonight's arm changes the equation. Luis Castillo makes his White Sox debut after the deadline trade from Seattle, and his 5.06 ERA overstates the problem: he allowed four runs or fewer in 13 of 17 starts and simply didn't get run support, running a 3.88 ERA over his last ten outings that's the better predictor here. Ranger Suarez is a real problem too, a 3.15 ERA lefty pitching well, but Chicago is still the AL Central's first-place team, and a fresh start with a new club is worth something Castillo's Seattle numbers don't capture. We were on Chicago's plus price four nights ago against Tampa Bay, and it wasn't close, a 9-1 win. At +178, this side only has to win a little more than a third of the time to turn a profit. Take Chicago on the moneyline tonight.