Chicago at Washington

Chicago is red hot, winners of eight of its last ten and fresh off cashing us as -156 favorites last night in an 8-6 shootout, but the number's gotten too big again tonight and the matchup doesn't support it. David Peterson brings a 5.35 ERA to the mound, a number that doesn't inspire much confidence at a big Chicago price, and Washington counters with Jackson Kent making his major league debut. A first big-league start usually means a short leash and a game plan built around the bullpen rather than letting a rookie work deep, and that changes the shape of this one. Peterson's own struggles cap how much cushion Chicago's offense can bank, and Washington's lineup, which has put together 171 home runs this season, has enough thump to make a rookie-armed Cubs bullpen pay if given the chance. This looks like a tighter, bullpen-decided game than a blowout, the kind where the underdog's price at plus money is live and where the total doesn't need to run up. Take Washington on the moneyline and take the UNDER.