Chicago at St. Louis

Chicago has spent this series making the Cardinals look overmatched, backing up a 7-3 win in the opener with a 10-2 blowout Tuesday before St. Louis finally broke through with a walk-off two-run double in the tenth last night. That one loss doesn't change what's been true all week: this is a Cubs team that's controlled the highest-value moments of every game in this set, and Javier Assad gets the ball today having given Chicago the better version of its rotation against this specific opponent for a while now. Cardinals hitters haven't had answers for him, and the bigger picture backs it up. Chicago is 4-1 this season when Assad starts as the moneyline underdog, the kind of number that tells you the market keeps underrating this matchup. St. Louis carries a bottom-ten bullpen into this one behind Pallante, who has been fine but not overpowering, and I won't pretend the Cardinals haven't had the better of this season series overall before this week. But right now, this week, Chicago is the team playing like it has more in the tank. Take Chicago on the runline this afternoon.