Chicago at Pittsburgh

We were on Chicago's runline in the series opener Friday, and it cashed when the Cubs snuck out a 3-2 win in extra innings. Pittsburgh has been on the wrong end since, an 11-0 loss last night that put this series on the brink of a sweep. Own that up front: Chicago is the better team by record this year, and that gap is real. But the matchup on the mound today breaks the other way. Braxton Ashcraft has been through a rough four-start stretch, yet he's still an All-Star with swing-and-miss stuff and a full season of starts behind him. Jameson Taillon is working with neither. He just returned from six weeks on the injured list with a hamstring strain, and his first start back against Detroit produced four earned runs in barely four innings, exactly what a pitcher still building up arm strength looks like. My mathematical model favors Pittsburgh here, and sharp money is already leaning the same way. A home favorite in game three after dropping the first two of a series is a spot that's paid off before, and I like Pittsburgh to be the latest example. Pittsburgh is the play in the finale.