Chicago at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh is down to bare knuckles on the mound right now. Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller are both sitting out this series, leaving Jared Jones to take the ball tonight, and the Pirates bullpen, supposed to cover any shortfall, has been part of the story behind eight losses in Pittsburgh's last nine games. Matthew Boyd starts for Chicago, sitting at 6-1 while the Cubs hold down the top National League Wild Card spot. My mathematical model likes Chicago by double digits across every read I ran on this one, and today the cash is leaning the same way: the ticket count is close to even, but the bulk of the money is landing on Chicago's number. Pittsburgh's relief corps has been shaky enough all year that the front office is counting down to the trade deadline to fix it, and that's exactly the kind of unit a one-run margin puts under pressure late. I don't need Chicago to win outright here, just to keep this margin honest. Chicago wins on the runline tonight.