Chicago at Milwaukee

I had Chicago on the moneyline in this same series last night, and it slipped away in extra innings, a 4-3 loss that dropped the Cubs to 0-2 here at Milwaukee. Tonight's matchup looks tougher on paper: Logan Henderson brings a 2.48 ERA and a 9-3 record to the mound for a Brewers club sitting on the best record in the National League Central, against Kevin Gausman's 4.38 ERA and a middling 9-11 mark. But this Cubs lineup leads all of baseball in runs scored this season, and a group that's been hitting at that pace all year doesn't go quiet just because the opposing arm has a shiny ERA. The market's split tells a similar story: a noticeably bigger share of the money than the ticket count is landing on Chicago, the kind of gap that usually means informed cash sees value the public isn't pricing in. Milwaukee has had to grind through extra innings just to close out this series, showing the Cubs' bats are making this a fight even while losing. Chicago's offense is live enough to turn one of these late innings into the moneyline cashing. I'm on the Cubs tonight.