Chicago at Milwaukee

Jimmy Nelson hit a rough patch in early June, but has had five decent outings since, allowing six earned runs in 29 innings. The Brewers have won his last two starts, including 9-1 at Cincinnati on Saturday when Nelson pitched seven shutout innings. The right-hander has a 2.45 home ERA this season and in 12 2/3 innings versus the Cubs, Nelson has given up just one earned run with 11 strikeouts. Jason Hammel won his last outing against Texas, however, Chicago has lost six of his last seven starts and he has allowed four runs and five hits in six innings against Milwaukee this year. The Brewers are in fifth place in the NL Central, but they're above .500 at home and getting a lot of value in this matchup. Take the Brewers.