Chicago at Cincinnati

The Reds are just a bad team, even at home. They have a 23-29 record here, scoring only 3.9 runs per game. They produce even less offense vs. LHP like Gorzelanny (who has a 3-1 record in nine appearances this season). Johnny Cueto has been getting shelled of late as in his last three starts, he's posted a 6.88 ERA. In their last 16 games against winning teams this season, the Reds are just 2-14. I like the Cubbies here.