Chicago at Cincinnati

Chicago has a fine starter going in veteran Drew Smyly. He had a 3.47 ERA in 2022 and his teams are 18-10 when he starts on the road, plus 13-2 when the money line is -100 to -150. Smyly has done well against Cincinnati with a 5-0 record and a 2.92 ERA. Cincinnati took two out of three against the punchless Pirates, losing 5-4 as -135 chalk. Starter Connor Overton made just four starts for the Reds last season and had a 7.56 ERA at home. He was just roughed up in four spring training outings with an 0-2 record and a 15.43 ERA giving up 23 runs, 26 hits, and 6 homers in 11+ innings. Baseball home teams like Cincinnati that closed out last season with 20+ losses in 30 games are 11-32 in the first 12 games of the season versus opponents that closed out the previous season with 17+ wins in their last 25 games. Play Chicago.