Boston at Toronto

Toronto is playing its best baseball of the summer right now, winners of three in a row, while Boston limps into this afternoon on a five-game losing streak that has swallowed whatever edge Sonny Gray's rotation was supposed to provide. We had this same matchup earlier this week, backed the Blue Jays as a plus-money underdog, and watched Toronto scratch out a 2-1 win. The pitching matchup tells a similar story this afternoon. Max Scherzer's ERA sits at an ugly 7.25, but that number is dragged down by an April that's long gone: over his last two starts, he's allowed three earned runs combined in 11.1 innings. Payton Tolle has pitched well for Boston all year, yet the one time he faced Toronto, in June, he walked away with a loss, three runs and two home runs allowed in five innings. A team playing loose and confident at home against a club that can't find a win right now is exactly the kind of spot my model targets with home underdogs. Take the Blue Jays on the moneyline this afternoon.