Boston at Tampa Bay

Six losses in their last ten games have taken some shine off Tampa Bay, and both wins in this series were close margins (1 and 2 runs). That's the kind of tight outcomes that can flip easily with modest variance. Boston's pitching staff has been more functional than the record implies, sitting at a 3.87 ERA, and Jake Bennett enters as the fresh arm in a three-game set where Tampa's staff has already been asked to work. Drew Rasmussen has had a strong season at 5-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 64 strikeouts, but he's working behind a lineup that's been inconsistent enough recently to create real openings. The market is pricing this game on Tampa Bay's résumé — 39 wins and atop the AL East — not on what the Rays have actually looked like over the past two weeks. At these odds, Boston is the bet this afternoon.