Boston at Seattle

Boston's road record is better than Seattle's at home. The Mariners score just 4.4 per game at home and over their last seven games they are scoring just 3.7 per game. Boston's offense has slowed down of late too but I give them more of a chance of breaking out than I do Seattle. Home favorites up to -150 with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games are just 11-31 (26%) in July games over the past decade. Also, road teams at +125 to -125 with a cold starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.00+ over his last 3 starts, after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs are 62-25 (71%) over the last 5 seasons. Jamie Moyer is a good pitcher but he is 2-15 vs. teams scoring 5.2+ or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Red Sox as a rare dog here.