Boston at Colorado

The Rockies have posted one of the worst rotation ERAs in baseball this year, and Kyle Freeland is the face of that problem. He's 1-6 with a 7.98 ERA and a WHIP approaching 1.75 through 58-plus innings — numbers that include a stretch of 10.86 ERA over his last seven starts following a return from shoulder inflammation. His most recent outing was Sunday against the Brewers: five innings, three runs, seven hits, and the hook when Milwaukee put two men on to open the sixth. That's who Boston is facing today, pitching on two days' turnaround from that outing, in a park that runs hot — the temperature at Coors sits at 88 degrees. Ranger Suarez is going the other direction entirely. He's 2.93 ERA, 1.12 WHIP through 76-plus innings, and in June, he's allowed three runs across 18 innings while striking out 18 against five walks. His last start was a near no-hitter through 6.2 frames against Seattle — one hit, no earned runs. The situational trends fall directly in line with today's setup: Suarez on the runline in road starts during the first half of the season, specifically after a scoreless outing, is a scenario the numbers strongly favor. The market prices Freeland's ballpark and Boston's recent 3-6 skid without accounting for how sharp Suarez is throwing. Boston wins on the runline today.