Boston at Colorado

Ryan Feltner has never found a way to get comfortable pitching at altitude. His career ERA at home sits north of 5.80, and tonight he lines up as a 5.05-ERA arm coming off a start in which he lasted 4.1 innings and gave up six runs. The home environment isn't incidental to those numbers — it's the engine of them. Fly balls carry farther, soft contact becomes extra-base hits, and a pitcher without swing-and-miss has fewer escape routes when he makes mistakes. Against Jake Bennett, this matchup tilts Boston's way. Bennett generates ground-ball contact at a nearly 59-percent rate, a profile that mitigates altitude effects better than most — balls on the ground don't carry. His underlying contact quality, including average exit velocity, plays better than his surface ERA suggests. Colorado's bullpen is thinner than it was six weeks ago after losing its best late-inning arm to an elbow issue, and a Rockies team at 30-48 hasn't demonstrated the ability to protect margins in these spots. Boston is getting plus money to win by two or more against a pitcher who has been bleeding runs all season in a park that punishes that tendency. Boston wins on the runline tonight.