Baltimore at Texas

We backed Texas's price four nights ago against San Francisco, and it worked, a tight 5-4 escape a shaky Giants bullpen handed over late. The version of Jacob deGrom on the mound tonight is a different proposition. He hasn't won since June 30, and his last time out was a wreck in Houston: three-plus innings, five earned runs, five walks. His home numbers still read well on paper, but the current form says otherwise. Kyle Bradish carries the better full-season mark at 3.79, and he has kept the ball in the yard, one home run allowed across his last four outings. Baltimore ranks ahead of Texas in runs scored league-wide, 14th to 26th, and the Orioles' staff ERA sits a shade better too. There's also a long-running pattern that lights up with Bradish on the mound against an AL West opponent, and Texas qualifies. The Rangers took the opener 2-1 Friday, but deGrom wasn't the arm that won it. Baltimore is the right side tonight.