Baltimore at New York

I had Baltimore on the runline in Wednesday’s doubleheader opener against Toronto, and the Orioles won it 4-2. That’s the kind of game I expect in this finale. Friday’s doubleheader in New York ran higher, with Baltimore winning 10-2 before the Yankees took the nightcap 6-3. The pitching setup today is different. Shane Baz starts for the Orioles with a 4.11 ERA. He held Toronto to three runs over 6.2 innings his last time out, and earlier this month he allowed one run over 6.1 innings against Boston. The weaker arm on paper is Elmer Rodríguez, who has a 5.40 ERA and 16 walks in 26.2 innings. He’s expected to absorb most of the innings, but New York won’t leave him out there to unravel. The Yankees own the lowest team ERA in baseball at 3.24, and their bullpen sits at 3.15. They also have their Wild Card seed locked, with the series opening Tuesday, so nothing on the line today justifies a long afternoon. Baltimore ranks 21st in OPS and is playing out an eliminated season. The UNDER is my play this afternoon.