Baltimore at Milwaukee

The Baltimore offense has been a big disappointment, #23 in runs scored and #26 in on-base percentage. And the pitching has been worse, #29 in ERA (5.07) - only the Reds are worse. The Orioles go with aging Ubaldo Jimenez (6.48 ERA), who has a losing road record while walking 20 in 46 road innings, along with 44 hits allowed. Baltimore is on a 7-21 run away from home, plus 40-93 away after batting .225 or worse over a five-game span. The Orioles are also 8-21 against a team with a winning record. Milwaukee is home, #8 in runs scored on offense, third in homers, and the pitching staff is #12 in team ERA. The Brewers pounded Baltimore yesterday, 8-1. Starter Jimmy Nelson (3.43 ERA) has a 2.64 ERA in nine home starts and has at least 10 strikeouts in four of his last seven outings. Nelson went 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA in six June starts, and his 5-2 with a 2.63 ERA in his last 11 starts. His 50-strikeout month in June was the second most in franchise history. Milwaukee is 15-5 as chalk of -110 or higher this season, and this is a great situational spot for the home team. Play Milwaukee.