Baltimore at Los Angeles

Emmet Sheehan has struggled to put together consistent outings this season — 3-4 with a 4.76 ERA, multiple runs allowed in each of his last six starts — and Baltimore's 3-2 win on Saturday looks, at first glance, like a reason to doubt the Dodgers today. It isn't. Trevor Rogers threw seven near-perfect innings in that game; the Orioles didn't beat the Dodgers' lineup, they got the outlier start their rotation has produced maybe once this year. That kind of performance doesn't carry over to a series finale. The more important number is what Los Angeles does as an offense. The Dodgers average better than five runs per game, second-best in the National League, and no version of Sheehan struggling early changes the math when Andy Pages and the rest of that lineup is standing in. The Dodgers are 7-6 in games Sheehan starts — the offense consistently bails him out. Baltimore's counterpoint is Brandon Young, who has been solid all year, 5-2 with a 3.18 ERA and at least six innings in each of his last five starts, but Young is now walking into the most dangerous offensive environment he's faced. The Orioles arrive in this finale without Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle, and Jordan Westburg — three of their core contributors — against the best pitching staff in the National League by team ERA. The Dodgers are the right side today.