Baltimore at Los Angeles

Roki Sasaki is one of the most volatile starters in the National League. After posting a 6.35 ERA through his first five outings, the 24-year-old right-hander strung together four brilliant starts — a 2.55 ERA, including a seven-inning, ten-strikeout shutout against the Angels — before the White Sox lit him up for seven runs in 4.1 innings just last week. He carries a 4.76 ERA for the season and has yet to prove he can sustain the flashes of brilliance over a full turn of the rotation. Baltimore is 34-40, but this lineup has real weapons: Gunnar Henderson can change a game in one swing, Pete Alonso gives the middle of the order a genuine threat, and Adley Rutschman controls the game from behind the plate. Trey Gibson draws the start on the mound for the Orioles, and asking a 5.91 ERA arm to go toe-to-toe with the Dodgers is a tall order — the case for Baltimore rests entirely on Sasaki's ceiling being unpredictable and the number being significantly mispriced. At close to 2-to-1 returns, the Orioles don't need to win this game most nights — just more often than the market implies. Take Baltimore at these odds.