Baltimore at Detroit

We backed Detroit at home five days ago, and Tarik Skubal delivered exactly what I was leaning on: a 2-1 win over Kansas City that kept the rotation and lineup rolling in the right direction. He gets the ball again today, and the stakes are higher this time: the trade deadline hits Monday, Baltimore is reportedly among the clubs in on him, and a two-time reigning Cy Young winner pitching what might be his last start in a Tigers uniform tends to bring his sharpest stuff. Detroit and Baltimore sit within a game of each other in the standings, so this isn't about one team being clearly better. It's about the arm on the mound. Trevor Rogers has been solid for the Orioles at 6-7 with a 4.17 ERA, but that's a real gap against a pitcher sitting at 2.70 with a track record of shutting good lineups down. Detroit's own recent form backs this up, a system that keeps hitting on this pitching staff at home in a similar spot. Skubal and the Tigers are the play.