Baltimore at Cincinnati

We were on Cincinnati as a live underdog two days ago against Milwaukee and it delivered, a 7-2 win that snapped a four-game skid, so I am not writing the Reds off entirely. But tonight skews hard toward Baltimore. Hunter Greene takes the mound for his season debut after offseason elbow surgery, a tough spot to find rhythm against a lineup that just took the series opener 3-0. Brandon Young goes for the Orioles instead, and this is the version of Baltimore that has actually worked all year: the Orioles are 10-3 against the run line in his starts. Cincinnati's offense has been miserable for two months, well below league average as a team, and sharp money is already lining up on Baltimore tonight. Take the Orioles on the run line.