Baltimore at Boston

Baltimore has won five of its last seven games and gets credit for playing well recently — Colton Cowser went off against Toronto on Sunday, and the Orioles' offense ranks 10th in MLB in runs scored. But Baltimore is 9-17 on the road, and tonight they are at Fenway with Shane Baz on the mound. Baz's two recent starts against Tampa Bay were sharp, but the full-season picture — a 4.48 ERA and 1.43 WHIP through 11 starts — tells you he is a pitcher who can unravel. Boston counters with Connelly Early, who has been one of the better stories in any rotation this side of the All-Star break: 5-2, a 2.95 ERA, and he has not allowed more than one earned run in five of his 11 outings. Early is pitching the best baseball of his career right now, Fenway tilts the edge further, and Boston wins this one convincingly tonight. Take the Red Sox on the runline.