Baltimore at Arizona

Baltimore's bullpen is eighth in the majors in ERA (3.20). They won the opener of this series, 5-1, with three of their last five road contests going UNDER the total. Arizona's bullpen is 10th in ERA (3.38) and third in WHIP. Starter Merrill Kelly has ERAs at home in the last three seasons of 3.02, 2.59, and 4.19. In his lone home start in 2025, Kelly allowed one run in 5+ innings against the Cubs. The Diamondbacks are on a 4-3-1 run UNDER the total at home and this total is too high. Take Baltimore/Arizona UNDER the total.