Atlanta at San Francisco

The 1.5 runs we get on San Francisco here on the +1.5 runline represents nearly 20% of the expected 8 total runs in this game. This season the Giants are 21-11 to the runline in expected low-scoring games (games with a total under 9). The Giants have lost just seven home games out of 23 this season by more than one run. Atlanta has won just 7 of 20 road games by more than one run. San Francisco has good shot at winning this game outright and a very good chance of at least keeping it within a run.