Atlanta at San Diego

JR Ritchie comes off his worst start of the season — three home runs allowed in five innings against San Francisco. Griffin Canning opposes him for San Diego at a 6.64 ERA, his lone win coming in just 4.1 innings of work. Both starters project as early exits. The UNDER case rests on what follows. Atlanta leads the majors in bullpen ERA, San Diego isn't far behind, and Mason Miller has been historically dominant in the closer's role this season. Two Padres-specific systems anchor the signal: in late-starting San Diego games when the previous starter failed to record a quality start, the UNDER has returned 12.8% ROI over 281 games since 2022. A second system covering this stage of the Padres' schedule shows 16.3% ROI over 174 games. Both lineups will need to do their damage early, against pitchers who can be had, before running into two of the best bullpens in baseball in a park that already tilts toward the pitcher. Take the UNDER tonight.