Atlanta at New York

We faded Atlanta's price against Miami last week and paid for it, a 4-1 final that was part of an eight-game winning streak before New York snapped it two days later. That skid is real, back-to-back losses to the Yankees, including Saturday's 5-4 nail-biter, but neither game came down to Atlanta's lineup falling apart. Grant Holmes takes the ball off a strong second half, a 3.67 ERA on the season. Cam Schlittler starts for New York, and his numbers hide a real split: a 2.26 ERA overall, but a 4.32 ERA and 1.34 WHIP at home against a 1.10 ERA on the road. His last time out, the Cardinals touched him for four runs in three innings before he'd finished the fourth. Atlanta is still comfortably in first place in the NL East, and Schlittler's home number is the gap the price isn't accounting for. Atlanta is the right side this afternoon.