2015 Season MLB Baseball Past Picks
September 27, 2015
This pick was released to clients on September 27, 2015 at 11:20AM ET.
Atlanta at Miami
Sunday 09/27 01:10 PM Eastern
1 unit on Game Total UNDER 7.5 -115 (risk 1 to return 1.87) RESULT: LOSS
Two of the worst offenses in baseball meet in Miami, a big park that's tough to score runs in. Atlanta is last in baseball in runs scored and in slugging. Starter Shelby Miller (3.00 ERA) has had a fine season, but gets no run support. Miller fell to 5-16 despite a quality start Monday against the Mets, as he allowed two runs on seven hits over six innings. Two of Miller's four walks were intentional, so his control wasn't as bad as his line makes it seem. The Braves are giving him 2.5 runs per game in support and have scored two runs or fewer in 18 of his 31 starts. Miller is 2-2 with a 1.16 ERA in five starts against Miami in 2015. He is also 6-1 UNDER the total on the road, and the UNDER is 13-3-1 when he starts against a team with a losing record. Miami is equally inept on offense, 29th in runs scored and 24th in on-base percentage. Miami is on a 6-2 run UNDER the total at home and 14-6 to the UNDER in Sunday get-away games. At least they have a good starter going in Tom Koehler, allowing 3, 1, 2, and 2 runs his last four starts. Koehler is 1-2 in three starts against Atlanta this season, holding the Braves to three runs or fewer in each outing. He has a 3.12 ERA at home and is 5-2-1 UNDER the total facing the Braves, while Miller is 5-0 UNDER when facing the Marlins. Play this one UNDER the total.