Atlanta at Los Angeles

Atlanta lost Game 1 by a 5-3 score, but Sean Murphy still took Tarik Skubal deep in the sixth, and Ozzie Albies homered off reliever Tanner Scott in the ninth. The Braves put the ball in the seats against the Dodgers' best arms. Blake Snell's 1.90 ERA is real, and I know it's what the total is built around. He didn't pitch for the Dodgers until May, though, and in that first start against these same Braves he struggled in a 7-2 Atlanta win. Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Albies and Murphy give Atlanta enough power to turn one mistake into a crooked number. The other side has the bigger scoring upside. All five Dodgers runs on Saturday came after Dylan Dodd left, and Teoscar Hernández, Kyle Tucker and Max Muncy all went deep once the Braves went to their bullpen. Atlanta has to cover innings with relievers again, and a lineup with Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman at the top will keep making them work. One strong starter doesn't hold a total down for nine innings when both bullpens are pitching in October, and that's the kind of spot our ledger is built on. Take the OVER tonight.