Atlanta at Houston

Atlanta took the opener of this series last night in a 6-2 win that looked like the better team doing what better teams do against a club that can't get over .500. That gap alone tells most of the story, and Atlanta's pitching staff backs it up with nearly a full-run ERA advantage over an Astros staff that ranks in the bottom third of the league in run prevention. Grant Holmes takes the ball tonight, and while his last start against Philadelphia was short on swing-and-miss, four innings and no strikeouts, he still held that lineup to two earned runs, and he was excellent before that, six shutout innings against the same Phillies club. Hayden Wesneski goes for Houston off a rough final line last time out: three innings and three earned runs in a loss, and the Astros' bullpen behind him has been shaky most of the year. The heavier bets in this market have already sided with the Braves, and getting the better team at plus money on the road is exactly the value this game offers. I'm on Atlanta tonight.