Atlanta at Cincinnati

The Braves have been beating the Reds senseless this series — won the opener 8-3 and followed it with another win behind Martín Pérez — and the market is now pricing Atlanta as a significant road favorite to complete the sweep. That price is where the edge lives. Spencer Strider is 3-0 with a 3.46 ERA since coming off the injured list, but he's allowed six home runs in five starts, five of them in his last two outings alone, and Great American Ball Park is the last place you want to send a homer-prone Strider. His wOBA against is drifting in the wrong direction and GABP's park factor will inflate his damage exposure. Cincinnati has won five of their last six games as a home underdog following a loss — which is exactly the situation today. Nick Lodolo faces a motivated Atlanta lineup, but the Reds at home protecting their house in a series finale, with a number that's been bid up by Atlanta's gaudy road record, represents a market mispriced off two days of dominance. The value is on Cincinnati at this price based on Strider's HR vulnerability and a park that punishes it. Take the Reds