Atlanta at Arizona

The Atlanta Braves sat out the playoffs last year because injuries were a major issue. They have started the season much better, at 5-2 through 7 games. The Braves have been explosive early, with a +27 run differential. Only the Milwaukee Brewers have been better, with a +28 differential. Arizona is off to a 3-4 start despite a -17 run differential. I think there is value in this game because of the starts each has had, but those differentials are likely to regress to the mean. Arizona starter Eduardo Rodriguez threw 5 scoreless innings in his 2026 debut. Grant Holmes has eased up vs. losing teams; his team is 4-10 when he starts vs. a losing squad. Make the play on Arizona.