Arizona at San Francisco

Merrill Kelly takes the mound off back-to-back nightmares, six earned runs allowed in each of his last two starts, and he's 0-3 with an 8.24 ERA in four August outings for a season line now sitting at 4-9 with an ERA pushing 5.35. That's not an arm I trust to keep this tight, which is why my read here leans on the number rather than the moneyline. San Francisco still hasn't named a starter, and that rotation is backing an offense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in runs scored and has been held to three or fewer in more than half its games. Arizona sits comfortably above .500 at 69-63 while the Giants are buried at 53-78, and Arizona is a winning side against the spread this year while San Francisco is a losing one. Kelly's rough stretch cuts against the fade: the Giants lineup has to be legitimately good to make him pay, and nothing in their recent output says that's the team showing up. At plus money for a two-run win, we're banking on Arizona pulling away and cashing on the runline this afternoon in the first game of the doubleheader.