Arizona at Cincinnati

The Cincinnati Reds have lost 11 of their last 14, and they're doing it without Elly De La Cruz. The shortstop led the club with 12 homers and 37 RBI before a hamstring shut him down, and no combination of Matt McLain and Edwin Arroyo fills that production gap. Andrew Abbott had a genuine hot streak in May — a 0.82 ERA over four starts — but the 2026 arc is messier: he opened the year 0-2 with a 6.59 ERA in six outings before catching fire, and the season ERA has ticked back to 4.10 at 4-4. Gallen's numbers (5.43) are real, but this is near-even money at a hitter-friendly park against a Reds bullpen already missing three arms to injury. Arizona carries a 5-2 edge in the season series. At this price, the Diamondbacks are the bet.