Oakland Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays

Oakland plays its third straight road game a long way from home. The offense is 26th in runs scored, 27th in on-base percentage, 18th in slugging, and 21st in steals. J.P. Sears (4.35 ERA) is on the mound backed up by a bullpen that is fifth in ERA (3.59). The A's are on a 9-3 run UNDER the total and are a bad road team (20-39). They're also 7-0 UNDER versus losing teams, plus 1-10 when Sears starts in Sunday get-away games. Toronto's offense is 24th in runs scored, 13th in on-base percentage, and 21st in slugging. Chris Bassitt (3.95 ERA) comes off a 5-2 win over first-place Baltimore allowing 2 runs and 3 hits in 7 innings with 9 strikeouts. The UNDER is 4-0 when Bassitt faces the AL West and the Blue Jays play their sixth straight at home on an 8-4 run at home, so back home field in a defensive duel. Play Toronto + UNDER the total. 

This is the rubber match as the teams have split the first two games of the series and Oakland will start Mitch Spence, who has a 3.86 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP while being used mostly in relief this season. He did pitch six innings on Tuesday and gave up four runs against Seattle and in his previous start he pitched 5 1/3 scoreless innings on one hit versus Tampa Bay. Toronto is 0-5 its past five games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and its bullpen has the worst ERA in the American League and the fifth-worst WHIP. Bowden Francis will make his third start for the Blue Jays and he has allowed 18 runs on 23 hits in 18 innings in 2024. Toronto is 36-28 UNDER and Oakland is 35-28 UNDER this season. The Athletics are 7-0 UNDER their past seven home games and Toronto is 7-0 UNDER against AL West teams. Take the Athletics, and Play the UNDER as a Max Play.

Things have to get better after a season that saw their team lose 112 games. The A's have been an improved team, and where it has shown up the most is in the stats. The A's pitching allowed 5.70 runs per game last season and so far this year they are allowing just 4.73 runs per game. That is a full run per contest. Toronto lost here in Oakland in the serie opener 2-1, and I expect a similar game tonight. The Okland pitching has been the difference for the A's lately as the opponent has scored just 12 runs in the last five games, and none of those made it over the total. Make the play UNDER the total.