New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals

The New York Yankees have hit their way to the lead in the AL East. Last night that came down with a thud. Patrick Corbin and the Washington bullpen held them to two runs. Corbin has the worst ERA in MLB baseball this season. The theme has been the same all season: start a left-handed pitcher against the Yankees, and good things happen. The Yankees have the best record in MLB against right-handed pitching, where they are 61-34 on the season, but have struggled to a 17-21 mark against lefties. This is strictly a fade play against the Yankees, who should not be a 2-1 favorite vs. left-handed pitching. The Nationals will start their third straight lefthander vs. the Yankees tonight. I'm taking Washington. 

New York has the best road record (41-25) in the majors. Aaron Judge is powering an offense that is second in runs, No. 1 in on-base percentage, and second in slugging. Nestor Cortes has not allowed a run in his last two starts, going seven innings against Cleveland and Chicago, allowing three hits each time. The New York bullpen is 10th in ERA (3.67). Washington's offense is 18th in runs scored, 14th in on-base percentage, and 24th in slugging, while the bullpen is 18th in ERA (4.09) and 21st in WHIP. The Nationals are on a 10-16 slide and have a losing home record. Mitchell Parker (4.26 ERA) is on the mound with a defense behind him that is 28th in fielding percentage. Play New York. 

It's the third straight road game for Washington after getting bombed yesterday, 9-1. Washington is 27th in pitching ERA (5.57) and 28th in WHIP with the second-worst bullpen (5.22 ERA), while the offense is 20th in runs and slugging and the defense is 21st in fielding percentage. Patrick Corbin has a 4.92 ERA on the road where he's allowed 17 of his 25 homers. In 67+ innings away from home, Corbin has allowed 99 base runners. Meanwhile, New York plays its sixth consecutive home game with the No. 1 bullpen (3.22 ERA) in the majors. The Yankees are 39-16 at home after playing four or more consecutive home contests, plus 25-5 at Yankee Stadium vs. lefty starters. Take New York (Max Play).

The New York Yankees have lost nine straight games for the first time since 1982, or 41 years ago. If they lose tonight they would match the 1912 team that lost 10 straight times, 111 years ago. You would have to think the Yankees will bear down here to avoid the embarrassment. Once again we have a situation where a long streak is present, and that usually means the oddsmakers overcompensate the line, as no one wants to touch the Yankees right now. The opposite has been historically true. A team on a nine-game losing streak has a +6% ROI in all previous games, which jumps to +9.3% at home. I like the NY Yankees in this one.