New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners

The Yankees' best off-season move was to sign Max Fried. He's been the best pitcher in baseball and will be looking for his seventh win tonight as New York takes on Seattle. Fried has been all but unhittable, as he has a 0.95 ERA entering this game. The Mariners will counter with Bryan Woo (4-1, 3.25 ERA). This looks like the pitchers duel of the series with both guys dominating hitters to this point of the season. Runs will be hard to come by. Make the play UNDER the total.

New York has a +65 run differential, which is tops in the AL. The offense is No. 1 in runs, on-base percentage, and slugging. The Yankees are 3-1 in the starts made by Clarke Schmidt, who comes off a 12-3 win over San Diego. They're on a 4-1 run after pounding the A's, 12-2. Seattle got swept at home by Toronto, getting outscored 21-7. They've lost five of seven and have Emerson Hancock (5.70 ERA) on the mound, with batters hitting .316 off him. Play New York.

This could be a breather alert for the NY Yankees. The Yankees won in 10 innings here last night 2-1, and have opened a five-game lead on the Orioles in the AL East with just 10 to play. They also clinched at worst a wild card bid with last night's win. History shows that blindly fading team who wins on the road in extra innings, and is playing Game 3 of a series can be profitable, winning at a rate of 56%. The Mariners need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive, so I expect they are coming into this game with a desperate focus. Make the play on Seattle.

New York has won eight of 11 with an offense that is third in runs scored, second in on-base percentage, and fourth in slugging. Batters are hitting .247 off starters Nestor Cortes (3.90 ERA) and the bullpen is eighth in ERA (3.68). Cortes shut out Seattle earlier this season in five innings of a 7-3 victory. Seattle's offense is just 24th in runs scored, 15th in on-base percentage, and 25th in slugging. Starter Bryce Miller has a 7.50 ERA against the Bronx Bombers this season in a 7-3 defeat. The Mariners have lost eight of their last nine as an underdog. Play New York.