New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants

New York is 3,000 miles from home playing its sixth consecutive road game. They've lost the last three by a 20-3 count and rank 28th in fielding percentage. Starter Sean Manaea (4.12 ERA) has allowed 27 base runners (10 walks) in 19+ innings. In the previous two seasons, he had ERAs of 4.96 and 4.44. The Mets are 21-36 versus lefty starters and 15-32 after playing four or more straight road games. San Francisco plays its seventh straight home contest winning five of seven. The offense is 12th in runs scored, while the defense is 13th in fielding percentage. Blake Snell's teams are 39-18 when he starts at home against winning teams, so back home field. Play San Francisco. 

New York is 3,000 miles from home playing its fifth straight road game. They've lost the last two by a 15-2 count and rank 28th in fielding percentage. Starter Luis Severino has a low ERA but that's deceptive. He has still allowed 20 hits and nine walks in 21 innings, and last year the right-hander owned a 6.65 ERA in 89+ innings. The Mets are 15-31 after playing four or more straight road games. Meanwhile, San Francisco plays its sixth consecutive home contest winning four of six. Starter Logan Webb (2.93 ERA) has allowed just two runs in 14 innings at home (1.29 ERA). And the Giants are 28-9 when Webb starts against an NL team with a batting average of .245 or less. Play San Francisco. 

New York is on a 12-4 run ranked 13th in runs scored, eighth in on-base percentage, and 10th in steals. The Mets have won the last three starts made by Jose Quintana (3.05 ERA) and the relief staff is fifth in ERA (2.95). Meanwhile, San Francisco's offense is 18th in runs scored and on-base percentage, plus 24th in steals, while the pitching is 27th in ERA (4.88) and 29th in the pen (5.56 ERA). The Giants have lost three of the four starts made by Keaton Winn (4.09 ERA). In his lone home start, he lost 4-0 to San Diego as a favorite and the team is 2-8 in his last 10 starts. San Francisco is 33-43 after a two-game stretch where the bullpen threw 9+ total innings and 28-46 after losing two of three. Play New York. 

New York goes for its second straight win following a 4-1 victory over the Giants on Saturday when Francisco Alvarez, Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor homered in a four-batter span in the third inning. Tonight the Mets have David Peterson starting and they got some much-needed good news when he threw six shutout innings on five hits in a 7-2 win over Milwaukee on Tuesday after he had been recalled from the minors. Ross Stripling will make his sixth start for San Francisco and he has allowed 27 earned runs on 45 hits in 35 1/3 innings this season for a 6.88 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. The Giants have lost four of six and New York is 15-5 its past 20 home games with a posted total of 9.0-10.5. The Giants have scored only one run in three of their past four games. Take the Mets as a Max Play

The New York Mets have the highest payroll of any team in MLB. They have a woeful 36-46 record to show for it and currently sit an unthinkable 18.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East. The Mets seem to be in every game, but can't consistently get over the top. The Mets lost eight June games by a single run. They will go with Justin Verlander who is getting healthy again after an IL stint. Verlander has made just ten starts but six of those have seen the opponent score three or fewer runs. The Giants are ten games over .500 but with Anthony Desclafani on the mound, they are just 8-8 on the season. He has seen his last three road starts where the opponent is averaging 6.3 runs per game. I see a big edge on the mound for the Mets in this one. Make the play on the NY Mets.