Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Picks

Minnesota is on a 4-2 run after beating the Phillies, 5-0, as a +200 underdog. They won all four of those as dogs of +120, +118, +125, and +200. Simeon Woods Richardson is holding batters to a .238 average. The Twins have won his last three starts, including a 7-0 win over the Yankees as a +165 dog. Philadelphia is locked into the No. 2 seed and has nothing to play for in the finale. The Phillies are on a 4-5 run, losing four times as a favorite, and the bullpen ranks 20th in ERA (4.27). Play Minnesota. 

The Philadelphia Phillies are behind Milwaukee by just one game for the best record in baseball. Milwaukee owns the tiebreaker, so the Phillies have to win their last two games vs. Minnesota, and the Brewers have to lose both their remaining games. The Phillies still have something to play for and will send out Ranger Suarez, who has had a very good season. The Phillies have won five of their last six starts, and opponents have scored one or fewer runs in four of the six. The Twins were an up-and-down team this season, but mostly down as they have 91 losses coming into this game. They will start Mick Abel, who has given up 15 earned runs in his last three outings that lasted a total of 7.2 innings. Huge edge overall for the Phillies, but particularly on the mound. Make the play on Philadelphia.

Minnesota has been an underdog in the last four games, but won three of them. Starter Joe Ryan (3.47 ERA) has had a terrific season with 185 strikeouts in 166 innings while holding batters to a .218 average. Philadelphia has lost three of five, as chalk of -110, -130, and -200. Batters are hitting .281 off Aaron Nola (6.46 ERA), and the bullpen ranks 20th in ERA (4.28). The Phillies are 6-10 in Nola's 16 starts. He's allowed 10 runs in his last two starts (11+ innings), losing as a favorite of -110 and -150. Play Minnesota.

Philadelphia has the most home wins in the majors but is 27-21 on the road. The Phillies play their sixth straight on the road on a 3-5 skid losing five times as a favorite. The pitching is second in ERA (3.44), on an 8-5 run UNDER the total. Aaron Nola comes off an 8-7 loss at Pittsburgh as a -167 favorite allowing four runs in five innings. Meanwhile, Minnesota plays its fifth straight at home with a relief staff that is eighth in the majors in ERA (3.66) and sixth in WHIP. Play Minnesota + bet this one to stay UNDER the total. 

First place Philadelphia is fourth in the majors in runs scored, on-base percentage and slugging, while the pitching is third in ERA (3.48). The Phillies are 11-4 in the last 15 starts made by Zack Wheeler (2.70 ERA). Meanwhile, Minnesota has lost five of eight and fails to step up against good teams. Only six teams have better records than Minnesota, but the Twins have gone 3-19 against the better teams, along with a current 1-14 run. Play Philadelphia.