Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals

Washington is a tough park to hit in and a pair of good pitchers are on the mound. Batters are hitting just .233 off starter Tobias Myers (3.10 ERA), who has a 2.66 ERA on the road. He faces a Washington offense that is 19th in runs scored, 17th in on-base percentage, and 27th in slugging. Mitchell Parker has a 3.78 ERA at home where he's holding batters to a .231 average. Take Milwaukee/Washington UNDER the total. 

Milwaukee is on a 9-5 run on the road. The offense is 10th in runs scored, third in on-base percentage, and third in steals, while the pitching is sixth in ERA (3.74). Aaron Civale has allowed 3 or fewer runs in eight of his last 11 starts, and the bullpen is third in ERA (3.26). Washington has dropped five in a row after losing the opener of this series, 8-3. They've also lost the last five starts made by D.J. Herz (4.79 ERA). The offense is 19th in runs scored, 17th in on-base percentage, and 27th in slugging, while the defense is 23rd in fielding percentage, 24th in pitching ERA (4.41), and 25th in the bullpen (4.35 ERA). The Nationals are on a 2-8 run, including losing five in a row to winning teams. Play Milwaukee.

Washington's offense is 20th in runs scored, 19th in on-base percentage, and 25th in slugging. They have a fine starter going in Jake Irvin (3.13 ERA) with batters hitting just .220 off him. Irvin sports a 2.92 ERA on the road and the Nationals are 7-0 UNDER the total when he starts on the road against winning teams. Milwaukee's pitching is 11th in ERA with a bullpen that is third in ERA (3.35) and seventh in WHIP. Starter Colin Rea has a 3.76 ERA at home where he's holding batters to a .212 average, so don't look for much offense. Take Washington/Milwaukee UNDER the total as a Max Play. 

The Washington Nationals used a pretty strong stretch to get to .500 on the season. The Nationals just have not been able to continue to play at that level and have since gone 5-13 in their last 18 games. The Nationals road woes are worsening as they are now just 2-8 in their last 10 as a visitor. The Milwaukee Brewers have been a bit up and down lately, but I also think last night's loss to the Nationals has to have them fuming. I expect to see this team, which is now 23-9 at home, take care of business versus a Nationals team that has not been able to sustain anything recently. Make the play on Milwaukee.