Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals

It's the third consecutive road game for Milwaukee, as well as their ninth road game over the last 12 contests. The Brewers won yesterday, 12-5, but NL teams averaging 5.0 runs per game after scoring 8 or more runs are 21-43 against a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.75 or lower. St. Louis plays its third straight home game with a bullpen that is 11th in ERA (3.64). They also have ace Sonny Gray going, who has not allowed a run or a walk in two starts (11 innings). The Cardinals are 224-159 after three or more straight losses, plus 65-31 at home after batting .200 or less over a five-game span. Play the St. Louis Cardinals.

Milwaukee has a 12-6 record and have won their last two games. They won the two games despite scoring a total of three runs. They have gotten two great pitching performsnces in those two contests. That included a 2-1 win over St. Louis at home in the opener of this series. The Cards have gotten solid pitching of their own as their opponents have scored just an average of 3.5 runs per contest in their last 10 games. Milwaukee has had their problems with St. Louis and are just 19-21 in the last 40 games. The Cardinals will run out Miles Mikolas against the Brewers and he has managed a 9-6 record against them in hi last 15 decisions allowing the Brewers just 3.3 runs per contest. I like St. Louis in this one.

Milwaukee is on an 11-6 run with the offense ninth in runs scored, second in on-base percentage, plus third in slugging and steals. They've won all three starts made by Freddy Peralta (2.55 ERA), who has a 26-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 17+ innings. The Brewers are 46-25 as chalk of -150 or less. Meanwhile, St. Louis is 24th in runs scored, on-base percentage, and slugging with no way to manufacture runs (27th in steals). Kyle Gibson (6.16 ERA) has allowed 11 runs in his last two starts (12 innings). And the Cardinals are 10-22 after batting .225 or less over a five-game stretch. Play Milwaukee as a Max Play. 

The St. Louis Cardinals had a nightmare season and will finish last in the NL Central. The Brewers have had control of the Central for most of the season, and despite the lack of a serious challenge, what has set this Milwaukee team apart from all the other teams in the division is their consistently good pitching. The Brewers' pitching staff has allowed four or fewer runs in 16 of their last 19 games. St. Louis sends Dakota Hudson to the mound and he has had little success against them. He has six career starts vs. the Brewers, and a hefty 5.74 ERA in those starts. Milwaukee starter Corbin Burnes has a career ERA of less than 3.00 vs. the Cardinals. I like Milwaukee in this one.