Milwaukee Brewers vs Seattle Mariners Betting Picks

Milwaukee put a 22-0 beating on Seattle last night, the kind of laugher that makes a favorite look unbeatable and pushes a line further than the two teams actually warrant. One lopsided score doesn't rewrite who these clubs are. The Brewers are a legitimate 78-48 and lead the NL Central, but no team is worth an extra run and a half against its opponent just because it won by 22 the night before, and the market routinely overreacts to exactly that kind of number. Seattle counters with Logan Gilbert, working a 3.28 ERA and a 9-7 record, a cleaner season than Milwaukee's Dustin May, who sits at 6-7 with a 4.13 ERA. The Mariners have scuffled, dropping seven of their last ten with an offense running just a .229 team average, but this isn't a bet on Seattle being good. It's a bet that Milwaukee isn't a run-and-a-half better than a team it just happened to blow out. Buying back in after a game like that, with the better starter on the mound and the number padded by one outlier score, is exactly the kind of spot I like. We're on the Mariners with the extra run tonight.

Milwaukee has been the best team in the National League for much of this season, and a 77-48 record tells that story clearly enough. But tonight I'm looking past the record and straight at the arms on the mound, and that's where this number gets interesting. Bryce Miller's 4-6 mark undersells him. His WHIP sits at 0.95, one of the tightest command numbers of any starter Seattle has run out there this year, and that kind of control tends to keep a lineup from ever getting comfortable. He did get roughed up his last time out against Detroit, but that came in the middle of a stretch where his overall body of work still points to a pitcher missing more barrels than his win-loss column shows. Kyle Harrison has been excellent for Milwaukee at 9-3 with a 2.99 ERA, but his last start was the worst of his season, allowing 10 hits in less than five innings against San Diego. That's the kind of outing that should make backers of a short favorite nervous, and it's exactly the spot where a plus-money underdog with a pitcher this locked in becomes live. The gap between these two teams' records says one thing. The gap between these two pitchers' most recent starts says something different. Take the Mariners as my MLB Game of the Week. 

Seattle had won five in a row before losing its past two, but the Mariners will look to get back on track with Logan Gilbert starting tonight, and they have won four of his past five outings. Gilbert has a 3.39 ERA with 88 strikeouts in 61 innings this season. The Mariners are 11-0 UNDER in his past 11 home starts against teams with winning records. Six of Seattle's past nine home games have stayed UNDER and Milwaukee has gone UNDER 13 of 19 against the American League. This figures to be a classic pitching duel as the Mariners go up against rookie phenom Jacob Misiorowski, who did show some vulnerability against the Mets on July 2 when he allowed five runs in 3 2/3 innings. Take the Mariners and the UNDER.