Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Milwaukee is tied for the best road record in the major leagues. You need pitching and defense to play well away from home and the Brewers have both, sixth in team ERA (3.31), 14th in fielding percentage, and fifth in the bullpen (2.85 ERA). The Brewers have won all four starts made by Freddy Peralta (1.90 ERA). Milwaukee's offense is ninth in runs scored, third in on-base percentage, fourth in slugging, and third in steals. The Brewers are 48-26 as chalk of -150 or less, 39-22 versus divisional opponents, and 29-19 after playing four or more straight road contests. Pittsburgh is 27th in fielding percentage and 17th in the bullpen (4.03 ERA), while the offense is 18th in runs scored, 25th in slugging, and 24th in steals. They're on a 3-8 slide and starter Mitch Keller (4.80 ERA) has allowed 44 base runners in 30 innings. The Pirates are 15-29 after four or more consecutive home games, plus 5-17 at home after scoring four or fewer runs in four straight contests. Make it a Max Play on Milwaukee. 

Milwaukee plays its sixth straight road game and the offense is looking road-weary, scoring just five runs in the past three games. They've lost the first two of this series, 4-2 and 2-1. Reliever Bryse Wilson gets the start. He started 20 games for the Pirates two years ago and had a 5.52 ERA. Pittsburgh plays its sixth consecutive home contest. The Pirates start a reliever of their own in Josh Fleming (1.74 ERA). The Pirates are 17-7 after allowing three or fewer runs in two straight games, plus 26-14 after two consecutive victories, and this is an excellent situational spot for the home team. Play Pittsburgh. 

The Brewers saw their four-game winning streak come to an end last night in Pittsburgh, 4-2. It also ended a six-game skid for the Pirates. Pittsburgh's offense showed signs of life after they scored just six total runs in their previous five games. The Pirates acquired tonight's starter Bailey Falter from Philadelphia and he has pitched much better in a Pirates uniform, winning seven of his last 10 decisions, including 3-1 to start 2024. Brewers starter Tobias Myers will be making his major league debut, and his minor league numbers are somewhat pedestrian where he has a career average 4.25 ERA. I think the Pirates got rejuvenated with their home win last night, and have the edge against the rookie. Make the play on Pittsburgh. 

The Milwaukee Brewers have come out of the gate strong at 14-6. The pitching has been outstanding in their recent games as they have recorded 22 shutouts in their last four games, leading to a four game winning streak. They will open a four game series in Pittsburgh tonight. while the pitching has been strong, Ross has struggled, and has been the weakest link in the rotation. Roos came over from the Nationals, and his team is an ugly 6-16 in his last 22 decisions, and Milwaukee is 1-2 in his three decisions this season. Going back to last year his last seven decisions have seen the opponent score five or more runs. Jones will be making his 5th big-league start and the opponent has averaged four runs per game in his first four. I think the Pirates have the edge tonight at home and on the mound. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

Milwaukee is on a 3-4 run and plays its third straight road game. They've split the first two of this series despite being favorites of -170 and -165. The offense is 19th in runs scored, 21st in on-base percentage, and 28th in slugging. Starter Freddy Peralta has a 4.19 ERA on the road and the Brewers are 39-38 as a road favorite of -110 or higher. Pittsburgh is on a 7-4 run and plays its third straight home contest. Pittsburgh is 32-31 as an underdog of +125 to +175, including 16-14 as a home underdog of +125 or more. The Pirates are also 13-5 at home against NL teams with a batting average of .245 or less, so back the home dog. Play Pittsburgh.