Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres

The Florida Marlins have not sustained much offense this season as the team is averaging just 3.61 runs per contest. The Marlins are an ugly 19-37 on the season, but that only tells part of the story. This team has managed to play well over their last 15 games where they are 9-6. The big change has come with the starting rotation and bullpen. The Marlins pitching staff has recorded five shutouts in their past 13 games, and over the past six games the Miami pitching staff has allowed 10 total runs or 1.67 per contest. San Diego has become a team that is playing a lot of low scoring games. They have failed to combine to score for more than seven total runs in the last four games. Make the play UNDER the total.

Miami plays its fifth straight game on the road, a long way from home. Starter Jesus Luzardo has a 7.59 ERA on the road. They lost at San Diego yesterday, 2-1. The pitching is 27th in the majors in ERA (4.60), including 23rd in the pen (4.42 ERA), while the offense is 28th in runs scored, 29th in on-base percentage, 29th in slugging, and 20th in steals. The Marlins are 34-64 after allowing four or fewer runs in five straight games. San Diego is on a 7-4 run. Matt Waldron had a rough start to the season but is in a groove allowing three runs in his last two starts. Those were victories at Cincinnati (6-4) and Atlanta (3-1). The bullpen is seventh in the majors in ERA (3.49), while the offense is eighth in runs scored, sixth in on-base percentage, 13th in slugging, and ninth in steals. The Padres are 45-23 after scoring two runs or less, so back home field. Play San Diego. 

The San Diego Padres salavaged the final game of a three game set with the Yankees at home. They will now travel to Miami to take on the struggling Marlins. Michael King will get the ball for San Diego, and overall he has been pretty good at 6-4 in his last 10 decisions. The Miami Marlins have gone 8-3 over their last 11 games. I'm not sure if they can sustain the level of pitching they have gotten in those games. The secret is the Marlins have scored three or fewer runs in six of their last seven games. I think what they are doing is unsustainable and I will go with San Diego in this one.

The San Diego Padres spent a lot of money to become a World Series contender. They have had a bad-luck season, with a lot of injuries to key players. They are also a ridiculous 0-10 in extra-inning games and have lost 19 games on the season by a single run. Despite all that, they are within six games of a wild card spot, and if there is a team out there with the talent to go on a late run it is the Padres. The Miami Marlins are also in contention with their young team. The Padres send Seth Lugo to the mound, and he is off a 4-0 San Diego win his last time out. The Marlins send Sandy Alcantara to the mound and they are just 3-6 in his last nine starts. The Padres are 26-15 at home in their last 41 games vs Miami. Make the play on San Diego.

The San Diego Padres have had one of those years. They have suffered a lot of key injuries this season. San Diego is also 0-10 in extra-inning games this season and has lost 19 games by one run. When you put it all together, this is a better team than the record would indicate. They are still just 5.5 games out of a wild card entry, They got off to a good start in this series with a comfortable 6-2 win over Maimi. San Diego will send Blake Snell to the mound, and they have won each of his last five starts and are 9-3 in his last 12. Snell has been improbable to beat at home where the Padres are 8-0 in his last eight starts and opponents have scored 13 total runs in those eight starts. Make the play on San Diego.