Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins Betting Picks

Since mid-April, the Twins have gone 8-17.  They have little offense aside from Byron Buxton, have the second-highest bullpen ERA at 5.39, and the bottom of their starting rotation is well below par. Minnesota should not be favored against a Florida team that has emerging offensive stars in Xavier Edwards, Otto Lopez, and Liam Hicks, the MLB RBI leader. Zebby Matthews is set to make his season debut for Minnesota. The youngster has flashed but still had a highly disappointing 5.56 ERA and 1.49 WHIP last season, pitching 79.1 innings. Veteran Braxton Garrett will make his first start of the season for Miami. Garrett was relevant just three seasons ago, posting a 3.66 ERA over 159.2 innings before requiring Tommy John surgery in 2024. Garrett has a low bar to pass here. Minnesota produces the fourth-lowest hard contact rate. Nearly every one of their hitters is having a down season so far, including Luke Keaschall, Royce Lewis, Josh Bell, and Matt Wallner. Take the Marlins. 

Miami is 5-10 on the road and begins a six-game trek. The offense is 15th in runs scored and 21st in slugging. Eury Perez (5.01 ERA) has a 7.43 ERA on the road, where batters are hitting .308 off him. The Marlins have lost their last three starts by a 19-11 count. He faces a Minnesota offense that is ninth in runs scored, plus 11th in steals and on-base percentage. Bailey Ober has a 3.21 ERA at home, where the Twins are 4-1 when he starts. Play Minnesota.  

The Miami Marlins, like a lot of bad teams, go through a stretch where they get hot and string together a good stretch, and then drop back to where they were. We saw that from the Minnesota Twins this year. The Twins had a 13 game winning streak this season, but their record in all other games is just 28-45. Miami is playing better than they have all season as the Marlins are 8-1 in their last nine games. Both these teams have losing records on the season, but the Marlins are playing their best baseball right now, and have not lost any of their last nine games by two runs or more. Make the play on Miami on the run line.

Minnesota is coming off two easy UNDERS because the Twins haven't scored in either of them. They were shut out again last night 2-0 while managing to get only two hits and the Twins wasted another good effort by their starting pitcher as Joe Ryan allowed a run on five hits in seven innings. Simeon Woods Richardson has allowed four runs his past 16 innings, including five scoreless innings on two hits against Seattle on Thursday. Miami has won eight in a row and it is 5-0-1 UNDER its past six games against teams with losing records, 5-0-1 UNDER its past six home games versus right-handed starters. Minnesota has stayed UNDER six straight Wednesday games. The Marlins are 24-18 UNDER at home this season. Take the UNDER.