Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers

Last-place Miami is 17-32 on the road. The Marlins are getting outscored by 138 runs, the third-worst differential in the majors. Starter Kyle Tyler has allowed 30 base runners in 20+ innings (10 walks). The offense is just 29th in runs scored, on-base percentage, and slugging. First-place Milwaukee is 29-19 at home with an offense that is ninth in runs scored, third in on-base percentage, and third in steals. Batters are hitting .234 off starter Tobias Myers (3.14 ERA) and the bullpen is third in ERA (3.33). The Brewers are 6-0 in their last six Sunday get-away day games, so back home field. Play Milwaukee. 

The Miami Marlins are one of the worst teams in baseball at 38-66 on the season. Unlike many poor teams, Miami will find a couple of times during the season when they catch fire. The Marlins are getting good pitching and are 6-3 in their last 9 games overall, and in seven of those nine, the opponent did not get over four runs. The Marlins offense has been awful for most of the season. They have already completed 70 games this season, scoring 4 or fewer runs. The Marlins have also done a great job shutting down the Milwaukee offense. The Marlins have held the Brewer's offense to 4 or fewer runs in 12 of the last 15 meetings. I like the UNDER in this one.

Milwaukee looks to take the three-games series with Miami after its 7-5 win on Tuesday night when Christian Yelich hit a go-ahead two-run triple in the eighth inning for the Brewers, who lead the NL Central with a 28-20 record, including 16-11 on the road. The Marlins had a brief surge recently, but they still are firmly in last place in the NL East and only 9-19 at home. Freddy Peralta has made five career starts against the Marlins with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. The Brewers have won seven of Peralta's starts this season while giving him great run support. Jesus Luzardo has faced Milwaukee twice and the Brewers are batting .297 against him and he has an 8.10 ERA in those two games. Miami's bullpen has a 1.42 WHIP and only seven saves. Take the Brewers.

Milwaukee plays its fifth straight road game off a 3-2 loss at Miami yesterday. The Brewers are 17-7 UNDER the total on the road against lefty starters. Southpaw Robert Gasser (0.82 ERA) has allowed one walk in 11 innings while holding batters to a .208 average. Miami's offense is 23rd in runs scored, plus 29th in on-base percentage and slugging. With the Marlins 35-21 UNDER versus lefty starters, look for a pitcher's duel. Take Milwaukee/Miami UNDER the total as a Max Play.