Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners Betting Picks

Seattle enters the finale off a gut punch, a 4-2 loss Wednesday that squared this series after Tuesday's five-homer outburst stole game one at Dodger Stadium. Roki Sasaki has been outstanding since the All-Star break, allowing a run or fewer in each of his last two starts, and Bryan Woo's own numbers away from T-Mobile Park have been a real problem all year, a rotation flip that puts Seattle's best arm on the road side of his season-long split. I won't paper over that. But the same Dodgers bullpen that let three separate one-run leads slip away in the opener is the group standing behind Sasaki again tonight, and the Seattle lineup that hung five home runs on this staff two nights ago hasn't gone anywhere. This is exactly the kind of spot that's produced value before, a road underdog off a loss, taking on a clearly better team that still has to get outs after its starter leaves. Seattle doesn't need Woo's home numbers, just enough length to keep this in reach for a lineup that's still hot. Seattle wins this one tonight.

Seattle lost three of its last four in Texas, capped by a 7-3 finale Monday that continued a lineup slump the Mariners haven't been able to shake, and now this club heads south to face a Dodgers team on one of the best runs in baseball at 67-39. I'm not going to argue Seattle is the better team here; it isn't close. But Luis Castillo turned in one of his sharper outings this season last time out, seven innings and three earned runs against Cincinnati. Seattle's pitching staff ranks well ahead of its offense all season, which keeps games like this closer than the win-loss gap suggests, and a losing road underdog catching a very good team outside its own division is exactly the kind of spot that's produced value for this side before. At this price, Seattle doesn't need to be the better team, just competitive enough to cash a plus number. Take the Mariners tonight.

Los Angeles has gone OVER eight of 10 against AL West opponents and Seattle is 12-6 OVER against National League teams. The Mariners have gone OVER eight of 11 overall, including Saturday's 5-3 loss to the Dodgers. Clayton Kershaw will get a tune-up start in preparation for the playoffs and likely will pitch no more than four or five innings. Bryce Miller has allowed 10 runs on 19 hits his past 16 1/3 innings for the Mariners. The OVER is 4-0-1 in Miller's past five starts against teams that scored at least five runs their previous game. The Mariners have gone OVER seven of eight Sunday games and seven of eight interleague games versus left-handed starters. Six of Miller's past seven home starts have gone OVER. Take the OVER.