Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Picks

I’m 3-0 on Milwaukee in this series, and the Brewers have outscored Los Angeles 15-7 over those three games. Los Angeles won 100 games to Milwaukee’s 103 and hit 204 home runs, while Milwaukee scored 832 runs, second in the majors. Milwaukee relievers have thrown 13 2/3 innings in this series and allowed two runs, both in Game 3 when Abner Uribe walked three. Tyler Glasnow gave the Dodgers 4 2/3 innings against Atlanta, walking five, and he has walked 25 in 74 innings this season, including four in four innings on September 12, when he allowed four earned runs. Milwaukee’s bullpen ERA was 3.40, third in the league, against 3.74 and ninth for Los Angeles. The dollars are running well ahead of the ticket count on the Brewers. At this price, Milwaukee needs to win 40% of the time to show a profit. I’m playing Milwaukee on the moneyline tonight against a Dodgers bullpen that has allowed six runs in 11 1/3 innings of this series.

I had Milwaukee on the moneyline in Game 1 and Game 2 of this series, and both cashed. Milwaukee’s relievers threw 9.2 scoreless innings across those two games. Los Angeles’s relievers gave up 4 runs in 8.1 innings, all of them on Monday, when seven of them pitched. Tuesday was an off day, so that bullpen is rested, and how many innings it inherits depends on Blake Snell. His 1.90 ERA comes from 42.2 innings in nine starts, under five innings per start, and his last four ended after 5.2, 1.0, 4.0, and 3.2 innings, with the last one coming on October 4 against Atlanta, when he allowed five walks. That puts the Dodgers' relievers on the mound early. Robert Gasser has given up 15 homers in 109.1 innings, and Los Angeles hit two off him in 6.1 innings on August 14. Those same relievers are the ones facing Milwaukee’s lineup, and runs they give up count toward the OVER as well as the moneyline. There's also respected money on Milwaukee, with the dollars running ahead of the ticket count, and the moneyline needs Milwaukee to win 38.3% of the time to pay. Take the Brewers on the moneyline tonight, and bet this game to go OVER.

I had the Brewers in Game 1 on Sunday night, and they beat Tarik Skubal and the Dodgers 2-1. Milwaukee’s bullpen covered the last four and two-thirds innings without allowing a run, and no reliever threw more than 26 pitches, so the same arms are ready this afternoon. Logan Henderson starts Game 2 with a 2.47 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP over 18 starts. He held this Dodgers lineup to one run on three hits over seven innings on August 16. Yoshinobu Yamamoto matches him on paper at 2.53 and 0.87, and he struck out 10 over seven innings at Atlanta in his last start. Henderson has not pitched past five innings in any of his last four starts, which hands more of this game to the bullpen, and Milwaukee’s staff finished second in the majors with a 3.51 ERA. The Brewers also scored 832 runs, second in baseball, and went 55-26 at home on the way to 103 wins. The starters are a wash, and the home team with the better record and the series lead is still a short underdog. Back Milwaukee on the moneyline this afternoon.

Milwaukee closed out San Diego with a 3-1 win in Game 4 on Wednesday, and the Brewers had three days off to set up the NLCS opener exactly how they wanted. Jacob Misiorowski went 16-5 with a 1.80 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP over 30 starts, striking out 252 in 174.2 innings. His Division Series start lasted four innings and 88 pitches, and San Diego scored twice off him. The Dodgers saw the better version in August, when he held them to one run over six innings in a 4-1 Brewers win. Tarik Skubal gave Atlanta one run over six innings last week. Milwaukee has seen him too, scoring twice on seven hits against him over six innings on August 16 in a 6-2 win. The Brewers went 36-14 this season in games started by a lefty. They were 55-26 at home, and their staff finished with the second-best ERA in the majors at 3.51. The board has a 103-win team with the better starter by this season’s numbers, playing on its own field, priced as an even game. Back the Brewers on the moneyline tonight.