Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays

Los Angeles has been a surprise in the early going, as they are off to a nice 7-3 start. The Angels have three straight wins, and none of those opponents scored more than four runs. The Rays are the home team, but hurricane damage has caused this team to call the Yankees' spring training complex in Fort Lauderdale home, lessening the advantage. Tampa Bay is 4-6 on the season, but they've lost five straight. The Rays have played much lower scoring games than the market has adjusted for, posting an 8-2 UNDER record. The final score totaled seven or less in eight of those games, and I'm looking for that trend to continue. Make the play on the UNDER.

Tampa Bay has won 13 of 18 meetings and the Rays will look to snap a four-game slide after being swept at Texas. The Rays are back home where they have won four of six this season and they will have Shane Baz on the mound. Baz threw six shutout innings on seven hits in Tampa Bay's 6-0 victory over Pittsburgh on April 1, and the Angels will be seeing him for the first time. He finished with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 2024. Kyle Hendricks is trying to extend his career with Los Angeles after a rough season in 2024 when he was 4-12 with a 5.92 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP with the Cubs. Tampa Bay is allowing 3.11 runs per game compared to 5.22 for the Angels. Take the Rays.

The Los Angeles offense is 16th in runs scored and fifth in steals. They're 58-39 OVER the total as an underdog. Starter Griffin Canning (9.88 ERA) has struggled badly, with batters hitting .350 off him, and the Angels bullpen is 21st in ERA (4.83). Tampa Bay's pitching staff is last in the majors in bullpen ERA (6.23) with the second-highest WHIP. Starter Ryan Pepiot (5.40 ERA) comes off an 11-2 loss to the Giants at home, but this is a good opportunity for him to rebound against an Angels team that is 97-163 vs. winning teams the past three seasons, including a 49-81 mark on the road. The Rays are on a 59-34 run OVER the total at home, including 44-25 OVER against righty starters, plus 46-27 OVER versus losing teams. Play the Rays to win, and take the Angels/Rays OVER the total. 

Los Angeles has a winning road record despite playing 11 road games and only six home contests. Reid Detmers (1.04 ERA) has been on his game with the Angels, winning his three starts by scores of 7-0, 2-1, and 4-1. Tampa Bay has disappointed, getting outscored by 17 runs, despite playing 12 home games and six road contests. The offense is 17th in runs scored, plus 21st in on-base percentage and slugging. The pitching is just 26th in ERA (4.93), including dead last in the bullpen (6.27 ERA). With the Rays 32-40 against a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start, back the visitors and their ace. Play Los Angeles.